Sunken Probability - Best Rods for Sunken (It's Luring Bronze and I'll prove it)

There’s been a couple posts on here about people getting a sunken and then getting another one shortly after on their 3000th fish

I’ve kinda thought this is how it worked for a while, since in the patch notes vetex wrote “guaranteed sunken every 3000 catches” and not “guaranteed sunken every 3000 catches without a sunken” so I’m not too surprised that’s how it acc works

I’ve gotten a sunken piece twice, from two different saves, both at 3001 fish caught. Both times I’ve caught a few sunken pieces before the 3001st fish so it’s prolly safe to assume that pity happens regardless of if you catch a sunken beforehand or not

Too add onto this, I’ve heard this from a couple other people as well. Seems too improbable to be pure chance.

Real goofy pity system. I’m pretty close to a multiple of 3k fish caught so I won’t really complain.

I caught my first and only sunken on 3272 fish

That was only on my main file

(Yes for any arcane Odyssey only players that read this and go ‘omg impossible’ this was in World of Magic)

Now someone do the math if luring bronze or lucky bronze or whatever rod is the best for catching rare fish (I assume it’s lucky bronze no math needed?)

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I actually have no idea how the lucky enchant is calculated. Truth be told I have no idea how the magnetic enchant is calculated, but I guessed.

Lucky is… really weird because there is more than 1 thing to boost with “bonus to rare fish.” Is it a bonus to giant/large? Or is it a bonus to uncommon and rare fish in general, like Turtles and King Salmon? Or is it all of the above? I don’t know enough to even try doing the math on that one, unfortunately. But I’d just stick to luring bronze, seems like a pretty good all rounder.

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just read this and I saw how wrong this is. First, the guarantee sunken don’t reset whenever you catch a fish. So, if you use luring bronze rod…you almost never get items so you can only get it from guaranteed. Magnetic collector rod however, is better. Not only it raises the probability of catching items, which give more chances of sunken, it also get sunken every 3k fish caught like other rods

unrelated question, how the hell do you get bronze/collectors rods? i haven’t gotten a single one besides the ones i’ve gotten from WoM. doesn’t matter either way but i just wanted to know

did… did you not see that i accounted for both of those things?

my brother in christ the point of this exercise was to test how much better magnetic was over luring, and whether or not that was worth the increased time to catch fish. I would not go through this effort and assume that they had the same item catch chance.

admittedly, my numbers on bronze luring are inconsistent and I find myself having to retest constantly. but everything prior to that section should be correct as long as the premise is correct.

but holy shit is your assumption that luring bronze “never gets items so you can only get it from guaranteed.” Even with reduced item chance, on average, luring bronze will catch a sunken like 1.2 or 1.2 times per times it gets it from pity. like this premise is… I’m not going to say it’s stupid, but I’d like you to know that I think it is.

@anon49231511 You can get them from shell and palo town. I think palo town is bronze and shell is collector?

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Well this is interesting for sure

I actually created a desmos graph comparing the different rod types with different enchants.

(Y is % to get a specific sunken atleast once, X is catches done with lure 1, with addition lure being applied as a multiplier. ie 1.5 lure with 100 catches is treated as 150 catches in the graph.)
(color codes as fallows:
specific rod:
red - base
blue - lure
orange - collector

specific enchant:
red - wood
orange - bronze
green - collector)

TLDR of it is that magnetic bronze is best if your going for ~8000-10000 catches, after that its luring all the way. Getting garenteed sunkens faster is just to huge to pass up. This also explains why collectors is worse than even wooden in this graph. losing 0.2 lure is a huge deal, as you number of attempts ends up being an exponent in your chance to get a specific sunken atleast once.

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I don’t actually know if magnetic collector loses out on that much considering pity, bc it still gets the guaranteed sunken at 3000 even if it (and it probably has) caught a sunken within the previous 3k fish. but it probably doesn’t benefit as much as bronze does either. i’m not sure sure here.

luring is also not a flat time increase, because there’s reeling time and recast time, both of which are unaffected by luring. as level suggested you could make these negligible by only reeling in items, but that’s too much effort. i’ve been trying to get enough empirical evidence to slap into the formula, but have been having trouble with inconsistent numbers on luring bronze specifically.

does your graph find that the probability of all rods converge as they approach infinite fish? That’s what it looks like to me, but I can’t understand why they’d do that.
NEVERMIND I SEE IT’S PROBABLY OF CATCHING A SWORD BY THAT POINT. im stupid.

to be honest, a lot of that graph confuses me.

Whats happening there is that this graph is asking “if i do X catches what are my odds of having the specific sunken item i want atleast once”. Because this is the question as you approach infinity the answer will always approach 1, ie 100%.

As for reeling time i haven’t thought to include that but im just going to consider its trivial? unless you are somehow changing your strength mid attempts then across many attempts its just going to average out to some specific additive amount of time to each catch. From my own fishing expierence thats probably like 1-3 seconds, compared to the 15 to 60 seconds you are getting from waiting for luring.

yeah idk, that additive time wasn’t negligible. I’ve seen my bronze luring numbers range from like 24 seconds to 28, which is actually big enough to shift it over or under the effectiveness of luring collector or even magnetic collector.

What I found is that the magnetic collectors(red) is just getting strait up lapped by is bronze counter parts. By the time its even getting its first garenteed luring bronze(green) is almost on its second, while magnetic bronze(blue) is half way to its second. Thats also ignoring that in this case more rolls > better rolls(as seen by the higher Y values before the garenteed jumps). That is with ignoring reeling time though, ill see about making a V2.0 of this graph that makes the X access minutes spent fishing with parameters for lure 1 lure time and reeling time.

How many total sunken pieces did you get for each rod respectively for the original post

honestly that’s just despressing

yeah fishing is just like, damn. that’s a hell of a lot of time.

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