1/7500
1/12500
Throwing a couple of numbers out there but I recall before AO released that it was planned to be half of AA’s Legendary Chart rates. Which was either 1/15000 or 1/25000.
i say 1/750. while this number is low, you need to take in the fact of the many lost magics that will be added making your desired result much rarer. take the base magics for example. like 18 or 16 so getting what you want wont happen and it will be rare enough but casuals will still end up getting one
That would make sense for Ancient Magics and Legendary Weapons themselves only
(solid reminder that Ancient Fighting styles technically do not exist, due to the tier upgrade system that will exist at some point allowing base tier fighting styles to be on par with Losts, and Losts on par with Ancients)
1/60 since there’s supposedly a lot of losts and the one you want specifically would technically be really rare
though finding one in general shouldn’t be too hard to do and I’d make ancients like 1/240 (quadruple rarity)
I never heard of fighting style upgrading. Does it have anything to do with the fact that Souvella isn’t a real Boxing mentor?
True it is a lot, my number might be high because everyone else’s here is INSANE
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no it was just a thing that got said in trello once i think
Oh, here it is.
So realistically I’d say lost magics should be…1/600? Possibly 500? Ancient magics should be 1/1000 possibly.
Ugh but getting the magic you want would still be annoying with 1/500 (ESPECIALLY w 1/1000), but I guess that’s where trading comes in
That seems realistic.
Probably less chance though, considering that we’d probably be getting them from Vimir and Dark Sealed Chests only. And of course anything inbetween or better.
bro 1/500 is cancerous AF my ass will not grind my life away so I can get a piece of paper in a Lego game 
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True, who wants to open 500 Vimir or Dark Sealed Chests?
They gotta be rare, but not that rare. 1/200 tops, imo.
Yall can come up with numbers all day, but rare spells are still 1.6% chance of being obtained from a Dark Sealed Chest. I’d still say about half of that, so like, 0.8%.
That would also encompass the chance for Exotic weapons, and lost Styles.
1/100 for lost magics
1/250 for ancients
a solid, 150% increase in rarity for ancients seems fair enough
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1/100 is kind of easy.
rare spells, techs, and weapons are all 1.6/100
its in the Fighting Style Types card in the Trello, inbetween the explanation of Common Fighting Styles and Basic Combat. Trello
Come on, I literally made another reply to somebody else with a picture of that part of the trello.
1/200 losts
1/325 ancients
Seems about right. 0.5% in each chest is fairly decent when luck potions exist.